The cumulative loss of gross national product between 2021 and 2030 would be as high as $502 billion under Labor, compared with as $89 billion under the Coalition’s policies, which includes reducing emissions by 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030.
Wholesale electricity prices would increase by $93 by 2030 under the Coalition and $128 under Labor.
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says Labor will announce its full climate policy before the election, but without Kyoto carryover provisions, the report estimates Labor’s effective carbon price could more than double to $696.
Output would drop in almost every industry under both plans by 2030. Thermal coal output would drop by 21.2 per cent under the Coalition and 44 per cent under Labor, ahead of falls in metallurgical coal of 4.8 per cent under the Coalition and 13.2 per cent under Labor.
Cropping, livestock, fishing and forestry outputs would all drop between 0.6 per cent and 8.6 per cent. The report does not factor in the cost implications of Labor’s commitment to exempt agriculture from its 45 per cent reduction target.
Report author and BAEconomics managing director Brian Fisher is an experienced climate researcher and contributed to three assessments by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
His report was peer-reviewed by Stanford University’s Professor John Weyant.
“The higher the abatement task and the less policy flexibility that we allow to meet our targets the higher the economic adjustment costs will be,” Dr Fisher said.
“The biggest impacts will fall on households and regions dependent on Australia’s traditional export industries but other sectors like manufacturing, transport and construction will also be affected.”
Energy Minister Angus Taylor said Labor’s targets would have a “far-reaching and devastating impact on Australia’s economy” and warned carryover from Kyoto would limit the cost to the economy.
“The Fisher Report reveals that under Labor’s target the agriculture, construction, manufacturing, coal mining, oil and gas production, and transport sectors will pay a heavy price,” Mr Taylor said.
Labor’s environment spokesman Mark Butler said the report was the latest attempt at “a climate change scare campaign” and had not considered Labor policy accurately.
“This is just another climate change fear campaign, led by the government and Dr Fisher, who Prime Minister Tony Abbott appointed to his review to end the renewable energy target,” Mr Butler said.
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